Dilma's Proposals For Change: Will Congress Play Ball?

I want a plebiscite, and I want it NOW!

In an article dated July 2, Folha outlines the five major proposals that Dilma has submitted to Brazil's Congress, to be voted upon in a plebiscite. According to Brazil Portal, the proposals include:

1. Campaign financing (public, private or mixed)

2. The type of electoral system (proportional or district oriented)

3. The end of partisan coalitions

4. The end of the senators substitution process (In Brazil, when a senator is promoted, the runner up to the seat automatically takes power) 

5. The end of the secret vote in Congress

(Source and translation: Brazil Portal)

In an effort to show the people that she has been listening and is working to bring about major reforms, Dilma wanted to hold the plebiscite as soon as possible, so that the changes could be implemented before the 2014 Presidential election.

However, the NYTimes reports that as of Thursday, July 4, the Congress had refused to agree to Dilma's timeline, offering to hold the plebiscite in 2016, instead of this Fall.

Most analysts agree that it's risky for any politician or political party to try to gain political advantage from the protests, which is what some of Dilma's opponents are implying she's trying to do. Regardless of her motives, it will be interesting to see how the Brazilian people respond to Congress' rejection of a speedy plebiscite.

Update:

Estadão reports that Dilma has not given up on holding the plebiscite this year, and is still actively seeking support for her plans.

Eike Batista: No Longer the Seventh Richest Man in the World

Eike Batista in happier times

While Dilma has suffered a political loss in recent weeks, it's nothing compared to the financial woes of Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista. Batista, whose son Thor hit and killed a cyclist in a poor suburb of Rio last year, was ranked by Forbes as the seventh richest man in the world. His personal wealth was estimated to be around $30 billion.

He has fallen to 100th place on the Forbes list, and his wealth is now less than $3 billion. The Brazilian government has no plans to offer him financial assistance, a move that would be political suicide after the recent demonstrations. 

Things are so bad (well, relatively speaking) that Batista is selling his private jet. In addition, he has stepped down as chairman of one his most troubled enterprises, MPX, as well as selling his own shares. 

But as this article in the Economist warns, don't count him out yet. Batista, who lacks a college degree and started out as an insurance salesman, has always been ambitious and has survived other financial crises, though none as severe as this one. 

The Anger of Brazil's Middle Class

Even the baby looks angry

This analysis from Reuters outlines the rapid growth of Brazil's middle class in recent years, and goes on to describe the issues which have mobilized protesters in the recent demonstrations. 

As the article explains, the term "middle class" means something very different in Brazil, as compared to the United States and Western Europe:

"the term is used broadly to include almost anyone able to pay rent, put food on the table and perhaps pay a monthly instalment on the refrigerator, microwave or television."

People making as little as $790 a month are considered part of Brazil's middle class, which would put them in the "working poor" category in the US. 

As another article about the same topic from the New Yorker puts it: 

"Brazil is an increasingly middle-class country that still has many of the characteristics of a poorer one."

Since workers with very low incomes rely on public services more than the upper middle class does, it helps us to understand why a rate hike for mass transit was such a rallying point.

Brazil Wins Confederations Cup

Neymar and friends still love soccer

After weeks of demonstrations, many of which included protests against the money spent for the Confederations Cup, World Cup, and Olympics, Brazil defeated Spain to win the Confederations Cup. 

The victory was celebrated with festivities, but there were also some skirmishes between police and protesters on Sunday evening. This article from Reuters gives more details.

As the article points out, Dilma did not attend Sunday's match, having been booed at the opening game. 

Infographic Tracks Brazil's Protests

This infographic from Estadão shows the dates of the protests, as well as their numbers and locations throughout Brazil. This article includes additional details.

Why Brazilians Hate Their Congress

Too bad Brazil's Congress isn't as
lovely as these buildings

This article from the NYTimes gives an excellent account of why Brazil's Congress has been the target of so much of the anger and frustration of the recent protests.

Even US citizens, who also hold their Congress in extremely low esteem (latest approval figures are below 10%), would be appalled at some of the outrages that are tolerated in Brazil's Congress.

For example:

1. About one-third of the Congress faces charges ranging from corruption to slavery and kidnapping. 

2. Members of Congress have special judicial standing which results in trials that  drag on for years.

3. This is a direct quote from the article which I didn't want to paraphrase because it's so incredible: "In 1963, Senator Arnon de Mello shot dead a fellow legislator on the Senate floor, only to escape imprisonment, since the killing was considered an accident because he was aiming at another senator."

4. De Mello's son, Fernando Collor de Mello, was elected President in 1989, but resigned in disgrace over corruption charges in 1992. But his story doesn't end there. In 2006, he was elected to the Brazilian Senate, where he continues to serve, in spite of an ongoing lawsuit involving corruption that occurred during his Presidency. 

5. Public opinion of Congress is so low, that a professional clown won election to the lower house with more votes than any candidate had ever received in the country's history. 

The article includes more stories of members of Congress who have committed murder, operated death squads, and engaged in various sordid scandals.

To top it all off, members of Brazil's Congress receive large salaries, along with generous fringe benefits and the ability to hire large staffs.

No wonder the Brazilian people have had enough. These crimes and excesses, which are as widespread as they are appalling, are an eye-opener. What surprised me the most is that members of Congress don't even seem to try to hide their offenses, which is usually what happens in the US. 

And as bad as the US Congress may be, no member has ever been accused of overseeing a death squad that disposes of its victims by tossing them into a vat of acid, or dismembering them with a chainsaw. (I did not make that up: read the article). 

I have argued in the past that since Brazil is a democracy, with free and open elections, its citizens can bring about political change by voting. And indeed, Brazilians *do* vote, with a turnout rate near 80%. (This turnout is all the more impressive when one considers the corruption in the system). So I could never understand why Brazilians were so cynical about their political leaders. My feeling was, if they're that bad, why do you keep electing them? 

Well, when the institution of Congress itself is so tainted by systemic corruption and criminal behavior, there are limits to what the voters can do at the ballot box. And that is one reason why the recent protests have brought so many people to the streets.

Detailed Breakdown of Datafolha Poll Results

These graphs provide a detailed breakdown of Datafolha's latest poll, showing the drastic drop in Dilma's approval ratings. The first graph traces her approval over time, beginning with March 2011. She reached a peak in March 2013, just a few months ago, making her rapid decline even more dramatic.

The next set of graphs shows her approval ratings by region, followed by graphs that show approval by income, education, gender, and age. 

There's lots of interesting data here, so feel free to geek out.

Note: In order to make the graph large enough to read, you have a couple of options:

1. Click on the graph, then right click and select "open in another window" in Safari ("open image in new tab" in Chrome). That will allow you to enlarge it enough to be legible in your browser. 

2. Download the PDF to your computer (right click on it and select "save image as"), then open it and enlarge it.