Saturday, June 29, 2013

Dilma's Popularity Plummets 27 Points in Past Three Weeks

In a stunning reversal of political fortune, Dilma's approval ratings have dropped during the past three weeks, according to a poll from Datafolha. 

Prior to the demonstrations, 57% of those questioned gave her a rating of "good" or "excellent." That number has now fallen to 30%, just a little over half what it was before the protests. 

In addition, the number who gave her a rating of "bad" or "worst" has risen from 9% to 25%. 




As the article notes, this is the biggest drop in Presidential approval ratings (as measured by Datafolha) since Fernando Collor in 1990. Collor resigned due to corruption in 1992. 

If her own approval ratings weren't bad enough, approval of the government's management of the economy fell from 49% to 27%, a further indication that public confidence has deteriorated signficantly. 

One positive note for Dilma: 68% approve of her idea for a plebiscite to address political reform. Only 19% disapprove, while 14% had no opinion or did not answer the question. 




While it was expected that Dilma's approval would suffer as a result of the protests, this is a precipitous decline for such a short period of time, especially for someone who has been so popular. In spite of being somewhat slow to respond to the protests in the first place, Dilma's own actions during the protests have been reasonable and conciliatory. It isn't really a question of things that she has done wrong, but rather that she hasn't lived up to the newly articulated expectations of the Brazilian people. 

It's possible that her support wasn't that deep to begin with, or it's possible that she's the victim of the anti-government fervor surrounding the protests. It could be that the public simply wants to put Dilma on notice: do something soon, or we'll vote for someone else. 

Whatever the cause of the drop in approval, the implications for her prospects in the next Presidential election are huge. 

Of course, the elections are still over a year away, and anything can happen. Politicians have risen and fallen in shorter time spans that that, and if the public is withholding support as a form of rebuke or a warning, the number could quickly rebound if people feel that Dilma is acting in good faith to address their concerns. 

But if the PT, her political party, senses that she has been irretrievably damaged by the protests, they don't have a lot of time to waste if they want to find a replacement. 

Dilma is a pragmatist and a realist, and while I don't expect her to simply give up her candidacy based on one poll, neither do I believe that she will drag her party to defeat just to satisfy her own personal pride. If and when she comes to the conclusion that she's no longer a viable candidate, my guess is that she would withdraw in favor of someone else. 

It's far too early to predict Dilma's political demise, but these numbers are quite bad, and it would be dangerous to ignore them. Ignoring the protests in the first place was a mistake that many Brazilian politicians made. 

We'll need to watch future polls, as well as those carried out by other polling groups, in order to see how widespread and long-lasting the disenchantment with Dilma's government has become. But for now, these numbers show that she has a very serious problem. 

Update: Here's a report from Huffington Post on the Datafolha survey results, and here's a report from Reuters

Reuters supplied the sample size as well as the margin of error for the poll:


"The Datafolha poll, which was conducted on June 27-28, surveyed 4,717 people and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points." 

Reuters also says that the poll shows that the protests are "a serious threat to her [Dilma's] likely re-election bid next year."

Additional information about the polls, as well as some analysis, can be found in an article on Philly.com. 

Update 2:

Folha has published a graph which shows how Dilma is doing compared to three likely opponents for the Presidency in 2014. While her numbers have dropped, she still holds a narrow lead over her closest competitor.





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